My Predictions for 2010

This is my last Editor's Corner for 2009 and I'm pretty much obligated to use it to make predictions for next year. I found it interesting, in this week's top story on the Forrester 2010 survey [1], that I was able to match many of the survey results with pieces that I had written throughout the year. Proving yourself right in hindsight is always easier than speculating on future events; but what the heck, it's the last column before the holiday break so let's go for it.

CMIS passes and is implemented

I'm not going out too far on a limb here when I predict what's likely inevitable, the passage of CMIS as a standard by OASIS. The specification has already been released as 1.0 and it looks like even if it requires a bit more fine-tuning, we should see this happen some time in the first half of 2010.

Mobile content access explodes

With many analysts predicting a huge uptick in the use of smart phones over the coming year, more vendors will be providing mobile access to enterprise content management tools. Walk into a cell phone store and you are actually hard-pressed to find phones that don't provide Internet access, and business users are sure to help feed the smart phone sales surge. Earlier this year, we already saw companies like Open Text providing iPhone apps that give users access to Open Text content management tools from the phone, and we are likely to see more of this across a broad range of popular platforms in 2010.

Google Wave takes shape

This year we saw the bleeding edge of Google Wave use, and while most users including yours truly are still trying to understand how this will work in practice, it's clear there is huge potential. What's more, some recent purchases by Google including AppJet [2] and DocVerse [3] are expected to be incorporated into Google Wave. In 2010, look for it to begin to take shape as a collaboration platform with Google providing more understandable and compelling tools and use cases for business users.

SharePoint 2010 online pushes cloud computing forward

One of the compelling stories coming next year is the release of SharePoint 2010, which includes a hosted version. I'm predicting that this version will be more popular than many people might think, and not just for small business users looking to take advantage of SharePoint tools at a lower price point. So long as Microsoft can handle the capacity without too many growing pains, it could serve to help push the popularity of other cloud vendor solutions.

Open source CMS solutions gain ground

Companies looking for lower-cost more flexible solutions have to be looking at these offerings, especially given that the likes of Alfresco, EZ Publish, Nuxeo, Drupal, WordPress and many others have entered mainstream use with thriving communities and growing support ecosystems. Look for open source solutions to continue to gain market share on (and perhaps even begin to build partnerships with) more traditional vendors in 2010.

Enterprise 2.0 matures

As Enterprise 2.0 tools matured this year, we began to see initial concerns around security and productivity fade. Businesses are starting to understand the benefits of using these solutions to increase productivity and capture knowledge in an organic fashion. Companies will continue to adopt Enterprise 2.0 solutions throughout 2010, while debates over words like social computing fade away and more successful use cases push sales of these tools.

So there you have it: My predictions for 2010. I want to close by thanking you, our readers, for your support throughout the year. In 2010 look for our new regular section called Industry Voices where industry experts provide guest posts on a regular basis. Enjoy your holidays and I look forward to continuing the conversation in 2010. - Ron [4]